AI Shopping Assistant ROI: What Q2 2026 Retail Earnings Reveal

For three years, AI shopping assistants lived in the innovation slide of the quarterly investor deck, mentioned once and forgotten by the next agenda item. That changed in August 2026. During Q2 earnings calls, Kohl's, Ulta Beauty, Gap, and Dollar General all disclosed measurable performance data tied directly to AI-driven shopping tools, and the numbers moved from "encouraging pilot" language into actual conversion and revenue commentary.

Kohl's told investors its AI shopping assistant is showing higher conversion and revenue per visit, though adoption remains small . That single sentence, buried inside a broader earnings call, represents the proof point Fortune 500 insights leaders and CFOs have spent two budget cycles waiting for: hard evidence that agentic commerce investment converts into revenue, not just headlines.

AI shopping assistant ROI refers to the measurable business return, most often expressed through conversion rate lift, revenue per visit, or basket size, that retailers generate from deploying AI-powered tools that help shoppers discover, compare, and purchase products. Until this earnings cycle, most retail AI commentary stayed anecdotal. Now it is showing up in the same sentences as comparable sales, operating margin, and capital allocation strategy.

Matt Britton, founder of Suzy and one of the most sought-after AI keynote speakers for Fortune 500 audiences, has argued for two years that agentic commerce would become the defining consumer behavior shift of the decade. The Q2 2026 earnings season validates that thesis with balance sheet evidence rather than speculation. This post breaks down what four major retailers actually said, what the underlying consumer behavior data shows, and how insights leaders should use this moment to justify AI budgets heading into 2027 planning.

What Q2 2026 Earnings Calls Reveal About AI Shopping Assistant ROI

Kohl's built its case around a Gemini-powered assistant that debuted with a Mother's Day gift finder before expanding into broader discovery and gifting use cases. Executives described the results as strong enough to justify continued investment even amid softer overall sales. Digital innovation includes leveraging store pickup capabilities, expanding same-day delivery through Instacart and Doordash partnerships, and building on early progress from agentic commerce with an AI shopping assistant that drives stronger conversion and higher revenue per visit.

CEO Michael Bender was direct about where this is headed next. Kohl's CEO Michael Bender said he is encouraged by early signs of the store's AI shopping assistant, which is resulting in stronger conversion and higher revenue per visit, adding, "We see significant opportunities to expand AI-assisted discovery, gifting and purchase confidence over time." That phrase, purchase confidence, matters more than it sounds. It signals that Kohl's views AI not as a discount mechanism but as a trust and decision-support layer that reduces cart abandonment and return rates.

The broader context matters too. Kohl's comparable sales declined 0.9% in the second quarter, driven by a slight decline in both average transaction value and transactions, while the digital business increased 2.8% in the quarter. In other words, the AI-assisted channel outperformed the rest of the business during a quarter when overall traffic was under pressure. That divergence is exactly the kind of line-item proof CFOs need before approving expanded 2027 AI spend.

Agentic Commerce Moves From Pilot to Strategy at Ulta Beauty

Ulta Beauty offers the clearest picture of what happens when AI investment scales beyond a single feature. The retailer introduced Ulta AI, an online shopping agent designed to enhance discovery and personalization, and paired it with a direct integration into Google's ecosystem. In April, Ulta rolled out functionality within Google's AI Mode in Search and the Gemini app, allowing consumers to search for, compare and purchase from Ulta directly through Google's conversational interfaces.

CEO Kecia Steelman has been consistent about treating this as core infrastructure rather than a marketing experiment. Ulta has agentic AI as a core strategy and continues to invest there, alongside ongoing brand-building investments and personalization initiatives to maximize incremental sales opportunity. On the Q2 call, she reinforced that discipline extends beyond the customer-facing layer. "We're in the early stages of applying AI across key corporate uses to enhance how we work, improve productivity and drive greater efficiency," Ulta President and CEO Kecia Steelman said.

The financial backdrop gives that investment credibility. Ulta's net sales increased 8.9% to $3.0 billion in the quarter, primarily due to increased comparable sales, the acquisition of Space NK, and sales from new stores, with comparable sales increasing 3.8%. This is not a retailer masking weak fundamentals with AI talking points. It is a retailer layering agentic commerce onto an already-growing base, which is precisely the pattern Matt Britton highlights when he tells audiences that AI amplifies strong retail execution rather than replacing it.

Dollar General and Gap Prove AI ROI Isn't Limited to Premium Retail

Skeptics often assume agentic commerce only works for beauty or apparel brands with high-consideration purchases. Dollar General's Q2 disclosure complicates that assumption. The value retailer is not deploying a consumer-facing chatbot yet, but it is building foundational AI infrastructure at enterprise scale.

CEO Todd Vasos described the approach on the August 27 call. Dollar General CEO Todd Vasos said the company is building agentic operating systems for enterprisewide workflows to improve productivity, even while acknowledging it's early in the company's AI journey. That investment sits alongside genuinely strong quarterly performance: net sales increased 5.2% to $11.3 billion, same-store sales increased 3.5%, operating profit increased 29.2% to $769.2 million, and diluted earnings per share increased 33.3% to $2.48.

Gap took a slightly different route, directing capital toward the operational backbone that makes agentic commerce possible in the first place. Gap and Ulta are pursuing AI projects related to supply chain, with Gap's capital expenditure expected to reach $650 million this year for new stores and remodels, technology, and supply chain investment. This matters for insights leaders because it demonstrates a second, less visible ROI pathway: AI-driven inventory accuracy and fulfillment speed that indirectly boosts conversion by making sure the product a shopping assistant recommends is actually in stock.

Across all four companies, CIO Dive's analysis captured the shift in tone. Executives from Gap, Dollar General, Ulta Beauty and Kohl's highlighted how they're using AI technologies, including chatbots, predictive models and agentic AI systems in their earnings calls, according to Q2 earnings calls. The framing moved from "we're exploring AI" to "here is what AI is generating," a shift Matt Britton describes on The Speed of Culture podcast as the moment enterprise AI adoption graduates from experimentation to accountability.

The AI Consumer Behavior Data CFOs Can't Ignore

Retail earnings calls are one data point. Broader consumer behavior trends confirm the pattern is structural, not seasonal. Independent market research now backs up what individual retailers are reporting quarter over quarter.

• Conversion lift is real and measurable. Industry tracking shows AI-referred retail traffic grew 393% year over year in Q1 2026 and converts about 42% better than traditional search.
• Query volume is already massive. Analysts estimate ChatGPT alone handles roughly 50 million shopping queries a day.
• The market opportunity is enormous but still forming. Bain forecasts the US agentic commerce market alone will be worth $300-500 billion by 2030, representing 15-25% of total eCommerce sales.
• Trust, not technology, is the current ceiling. Research shows a wide gap between US willingness to let AI compare prices at 65% against 14% for letting it place an order autonomously.
• Retailer-owned agents win the trust battle. Consumer research finds consumers trust retail-owned agents three times more than third-party agents to complete a transaction.

That last point deserves emphasis. It explains why Kohl's, Ulta, Dollar General, and Gap are all building or licensing proprietary AI shopping tools rather than waiting for third-party platforms to intermediate the relationship. Matt Britton has made this a core argument in his keynotes: retailers that control the assistant control the customer relationship, the data, and ultimately the margin. Brands that outsource discovery entirely to outside AI platforms risk becoming commoditized inventory feeds.

How Fortune 500 Insights Leaders Should Justify AI Budgets for 2027

The practical question for insights leaders is no longer whether AI shopping assistants work. It is how to build the internal business case for expanded investment using this quarter's evidence as leverage. Three moves stand out based on what these four retailers actually did.

First, tie AI spend to specific, trackable metrics rather than broad digital transformation language. Kohl's succeeded internally because it could point to revenue per visit and conversion lift, not vague engagement scores. Second, treat AI-driven consumer insight as a continuous feedback loop rather than a one-time deployment; platforms like Suzy allow brands to test shopper reactions to AI-assisted experiences before committing capital at scale. Third, benchmark against sector peers using real earnings disclosures rather than vendor-supplied case studies, since public companies now have a legal obligation to report material AI outcomes accurately.

Industry vertical also matters more than most insights teams assume. A shopping assistant strategy built for beauty discovery will not transfer cleanly to financial services decision journeys or real estate transactions, where trust thresholds and purchase complexity differ sharply. Matt Britton's Generation AI book devotes significant attention to exactly this point: the technology is universal, but the consumer trust curve is industry-specific and generational.

Insights leaders heading into 2027 planning cycles should treat this earnings season as the reference case for board presentations. Four retailers across four different price points and categories reported measurable results within the same six-week window. That convergence removes the "wait and see" argument that has stalled many enterprise AI budgets for the past eighteen months.

Key Takeaways for Business Leaders

• Cite Q2 2026 earnings data directly in board presentations since Kohl's, Ulta, Gap, and Dollar General now disclose AI performance as a standard earnings call topic.
• Prioritize proprietary, retailer-owned AI agents over third-party platform dependence, since consumers trust retailer-run assistants roughly three times more than outside agents.
• Track revenue per visit and conversion lift as primary AI shopping assistant ROI metrics rather than vanity engagement statistics.
• Pair customer-facing AI investment with supply chain and inventory AI the way Gap and Dollar General have, since discovery tools underperform when fulfillment can't keep pace.
• Segment AI trust strategy by vertical and generation instead of applying a single retail playbook across finance, real estate, or B2B categories.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is AI shopping assistant ROI?

AI shopping assistant ROI measures the tangible business return retailers generate from AI-powered discovery and purchase tools, typically expressed through conversion rate improvement, revenue per visit, and basket size. Q2 2026 earnings calls from Kohl's and Ulta Beauty marked the first time major retailers disclosed these outcomes as standard financial commentary rather than innovation talking points.

Which retailers reported AI shopping assistant results in 2026?

Kohl's, Ulta Beauty, Gap, and Dollar General all discussed AI-driven initiatives during their Q2 2026 earnings calls. Kohl's and Ulta focused on customer-facing shopping assistants and agentic commerce integrations, while Gap and Dollar General emphasized AI-driven supply chain and enterprise operating system investments.

What is agentic commerce?

Agentic commerce describes the use of AI agents or assistants that autonomously help shoppers discover products, compare options, and in some cases complete transactions on a consumer's behalf. Analysts project the US agentic commerce market could reach hundreds of billions of dollars by 2030, though most consumers still limit AI's role to research and comparison rather than autonomous purchasing.

How should companies budget for AI shopping tools in 2027?

Companies should anchor 2027 AI budgets to measurable outcomes already disclosed by public retailers, such as conversion and revenue-per-visit gains, rather than speculative projections. Insights leaders should also prioritize proprietary AI agents over third-party platforms, since consumer trust in retailer-owned tools significantly outpaces trust in outside AI intermediaries.

The Verdict: AI Shopping Assistant ROI Is No Longer Theoretical

Q2 2026 earnings season closed the debate that has dominated retail boardrooms since generative AI entered mainstream commerce. Kohl's, Ulta Beauty, Gap, and Dollar General each demonstrated, in their own way, that AI shopping assistant ROI shows up on financial statements, not just in press releases. For CMOs and CFOs still treating agentic commerce as a discretionary experiment, this quarter should mark the end of that hesitation.

Matt Britton has spent his career translating consumer behavior signals into business strategy years before they hit the mainstream, and this earnings cycle is exactly the kind of inflection point his keynotes are built to unpack for executive audiences. Organizations preparing 2027 planning cycles need a clear-eyed, data-backed perspective on where agentic commerce is headed next. Visit Matt Britton's speaker platform to book him for your next leadership offsite or board meeting and turn this quarter's earnings signal into next year's competitive advantage.